Gold prices rallied through most of October before retreating
by the beginning of November. On 2 November, gold closed
the trading day at USD 1,231 per troy ounce, which was up
2.0% from the same day in the previous month. However, the
price was 5.5% lower on a year-to-date basis after having
fallen steadily from April to August and was down 3.5% from
the same day in 2017.
The price gains realized throughout October came largely on
the back of increased market volatility, with every major U.S.
stock market index posting month-on-month declines, which
boosted demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Some of the
market demand for gold in recent weeks has also likely been
fueled by investors wanting to hedge their positions ahead
of the U.S. midterm elections, while the upcoming festival
season in India should have further supported demand for the
precious metal. However, a string of positive U.S. economic
data—such as the Q3 GDP release and October’s strong
payroll gains—coupled with the strengthening of the dollar
and a rebound in equity markets partially reversed the gold
price rally by the end of the month.
FocusEconomics analysts see gold prices remaining largely
stable until year-end, averaging USD 1,233 per troy ounce
in the fourth quarter of 2018. Looking ahead, safe-haven
demand should be buttressed by the geopolitical uncertainty
surrounding the U.S.-China trade war, while a slowdown in the
U.S. economy could help weaken the dollar, thus supporting
gold prices. Our panel sees gold prices rising throughout
2019 and averaging USD 1,285 per troy ounce in Q4.
In light of October’s movements, a large chunk of our analysts
held their forecasts stable this month, with 20 panelists
keeping their projections unchanged. However, 4 panelists cut
their forecasts reflecting losses earlier in the year. Meanwhile,
3 raised their price projections.
Almost all of our panelists see gold prices averaging higher in
Q4 than the current level, although some divergence exists.
The minimum forecast sees gold averaging USD 1,180 per
troy ounce in Q4. On the flipside, the maximum forecast is for
gold to average USD 1,306 per troy ounce.
Silver prices were relatively stable in early November. On
2 November, silver closed the trading day at USD 14.8 per
troy ounce, which was 0.3% higher than on the same day in
October. The price, however, was down 12.9% on a year-todate
basis and was 13.5% lower than on the same day last
year.
Prices edged up at the start of November on the back of
weakness in the dollar ahead of U.S. midterm elections.
Prices had fallen in previous weeks, however, due to
recoveries in equity markets, curbing investors’ appetite for
safe-haven metals, which are non-interest bearing. Industrial
demand for silver was likely hit by slower economic growth in
China, as recent data has shown the trade dispute between
the two economic powers is starting to bite. Signs of tighter
supply following a downgrade to its 2018 full-year production
forecasts by Fresnillo—the world’s largest silver producer—
should have buttressed prices, however.
Prices should rise in the quarters ahead, buoyed primarily
by stronger industrial demand and constrained supply
caused by underinvestment and reduced global silver scrap.
Downside risks include a further strengthening of the dollar,
higher interest rates, and a Chinese economic slowdown.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect
prices to average USD 15.2 per troy ounce in Q4 2018. The
panel sees silver prices rising further in 2019, to an average
of USD 16.4 per troy ounce in Q4.
The majority of our panelists held their forecasts for Q4 2018
steady from last month, with 10 panelists making no changes
to their projections. Meanwhile, 1 lifted their projections and 7
revised down their forecasts. There was, however, divergence
in panelists’ views: The maximum price forecast for Q4 2018
was USD 16.5 per troy ounce, while the minimum projected
price was USD 14.3 per troy ounce.
Por Focus Economics https://www.focus-economics.com/ desde Barcelona
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario