sábado, 5 de agosto de 2017

Uruguay: Inflation continues its descent in July

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In July, consumer prices grew 0.3% from the previous month, marginally up from June’s 0.2% rise. The result undershot the Central Bank’s expectations of a 0.6% monthly increase according to the latest survey. According to the National Statistics Institute, the rise was driven by higher prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages, healthcare and restaurants and hotels, which more than offset lower prices for clothing and footwear and transport.

Inflation in July dropped for the sixth consecutive month and came in at 5.2%, down from 5.3% in June, marking the lowest result since December 2005. Therefore inflation moved further away from the peak reached in the first half of 2016 and remained within the Central Bank’s target range of 3.0-7.0%. Annual average inflation fell from June’s 7.7% to 7.3% in July–the lowest result in over six years.Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect inflation to close 2017 at 7.2%, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2018, panelists see inflation easing to 7.5%.

Uruguay: Industrial production continues to plunge in May as La Teja remains closed for maintenance
In May, industrial production plummeted 16.0% from the same month of the previous year, virtually matching the sharp 16.1% contraction recorded in April, which marked the worst result since February 2010. May’s figure was again heavily influenced by the ongoing closure of the La Teja refinery for maintenance and therefore reflected a virtual halt in the oil and carbon products sub-sector.

Excluding the contribution of the La Teja refinery—the country’s only oil refinery and a key contributor to overall production—industrial output expanded 2.2% annually, which represented the third consecutive month of growth and followed April’s 2.8% increase. The trend accordingly worsened, with annual average industrial output decreasing 3.9% in May, down from the 2.5% decline observed in April.Panelists surveyed for this month’s LatinFocus report expect industrial production to increase 1.2% in 2017, which is down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2018, the panel sees industrial output growth picking up to 3.5%.
Author: Massimo Bassetti , Economist

Enviado por Focus Economics http://www.focus-economics.com - Desde Barcelona - España

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