CRUDO
The rally in Brent crude oil prices continued in recent weeks,
with the global oil price benchmark hitting a four-year high
on 4 October before moderating slightly. Still resilient global
demand and supply concerns are driving the rise in oil prices
globally. On 5 October, oil prices traded at USD 84.4 per
barrel, which was up 10.0% from the same day last month.
Moreover, the benchmark price for global crude oil markets
was up 47.8% from the same day last year and was 26.4%
higher on a year-to-date basis.
Fears about global supply disruptions in the wake of U.S.
sanctions against Iranian oil exports led the rally in Brent crude
oil prices. Iran is already feeling the pinch from U.S. efforts
to reduce Iran’s oil shipments to “zero”, and the introduction
of the second round of sanctions on 4 November will deal a
further blow to the Iranian oil sector. According to analysts,
Iran exported around 1.7 million barrels a day (mbpd) in
September, well below April’s peak of 3.1 mbpd. Japan and
Korea have already cut Iran’s oil imports to almost zero, while
China, India and Europe have made significant reductions.
Moreover, estimates for September show that OPEC likely
failed to offset Iran’s decline in oil exports, highlighting the
fragility of global supply. Conversely, Libya has reportedly
strengthened oil production in August and September
following severe supply disruptions earlier in the year.
Looking ahead, a combination of planned supply increases
by OPEC and Russia, strong production in the United States
and an uncertain global economic outlook is likely to push
oil prices downwards. FocusEconomics panelists see prices
averaging USD 77.9 per barrel in Q4 2018, before slipping to
an average of USD 73.5 per barrel in Q4 2019.
In light of recent developments, 18 of our panelists upwardly
adjusted their Q4 2018 forecasts compared to last month.
Meanwhile, 18 forecasters kept their projections unchanged,
and 1 cut their forecast.
Although oil prices will remain high this year, our analysts
foresee some volatility going forward. The panelist forecast
range for Q4 2018 runs from a minimum of USD 70.0 per
barrel to a maximum of USD 90.0 per barrel.
PETROLEO:
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices continued
to climb in recent weeks propelled by fears of global supply
tightening and strong demand. WTI crude oil prices traded at
USD 74.3 per barrel on 5 October, which was up 8.1% from
the same day last month. Moreover, the price was 22.8%
higher on a year-to-date basis and it was up 46.2% from the
same day last year.
Concerns that U.S. sanctions against Iran’s oil sector due on
4 November will reduce global supply is pushing up oil prices,
while strong growth in the United States is increasing demand
for the black gold. Despite the sharp rally in WTI crude oil
prices, the spread between the U.S. reference price and Brent
crude oil prices has widened sizably in recent weeks; if the
differential was close to zero by the end of Q2, the spread
is currently at around USD 10 per barrel. Rising U.S. crude
production and pipeline capacity constraints, particularly in
the Permian Basin, drove the large trade discount. Crude oil
inventories, thanks to surging oil output in the United States,
rose by 8.0 million in the week ending 28 September, well
above market expectations of 2.8 million. Moreover, crude oil
outflows to Asia slowed in the same week due to an uncertain
global economic outlook, pushing up inventories.
Looking forward, strong supply in the United States and an
uncertain economic outlook will exert downward pressure on
WTI crude oil prices. For Q4 2018, analysts expect prices to
average USD 70.7 per barrel, before decreasing slightly in Q4
2019 to USD 69.0 per barrel.
In response to recent developments, a majority of 15 left their
forecasts unchanged for Q2 2018 from last month, 12 of our
forecast panelists upgraded their projections, while 4 made a
cut to their projections.
The spread between the minimum and the maximum oil
price forecasts remains relatively large, with numerous
developments simultaneously affecting the oil markets in
recent weeks. For Q4 2018, the maximum price forecast is
USD 82.0 per barrel, while the minimum is USD 65.0 per
barrel.
GAS NATURAL
Natural gas prices rallied in recent weeks and, on 3 October,
they hit the highest level since the end of January. The
increase reflected strong demand and low gas storage levels
just a few weeks away from the commencement of the winter
season in the Northern Hemisphere. Natural gas prices,
however, receded in the following days on the back of reports
suggesting a large storage addition at the end of September.
On 5 October, the Henry Hub Natural Gas price was USD
3.14 per one million British thermal units (MMBtu). The price
was up 12.5% from the same day in the previous month and
was 6.4% higher on a year-to-date basis. In addition, the price
was up 7.5% from the corresponding date in 2017.
Natural gas prices rallied for most of September and at the
onset of October, due to low storage levels ahead of the
upcoming winter. Low stocks reflect a relatively cold spring
and hot summer in the United States that have not helped to
replenish deposits. Moreover, while late summer and early fall
are good months to rebuild inventories, injections have been
lower than normal. The EIA report from 4 October, however,
showed that gas inventories increased by 98 billion cubic feet
(bcf) for the week ending 28 September, surpassing the 88
bcf expected by market analysts and thus supporting natural
gas prices.
Looking ahead, the recent rally in natural gas prices should
recede due to a planned increase in supply and a potential
warm winter if there is a strong El Nino weather phenomena.
Over the medium-term, however, demand will be strong due to
a broader preference for greener energy, especially in China,
which should push up prices. FocusEconomics panelists see
the spot price averaging USD 3.04 per MMBtu in Q4 2018.
They expect it to climb to USD 3.10 per MMBtu in Q4 2019.
In light of recent developments, 10 panelists left their
forecasts unchanged this month, while 6 decided to upgrade
their price forecasts for the commodity. Meanwhile, 2 revised
their projections downwards.
The maximum price forecast for Q4 2018 was USD 3.50
per MMBtu, while the minimum forecast was USD 2.75 per
MMBtu.
Por Focus Economics - https://www.focus-economics.com/ - Barcelona España
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