Informe sobre Petróleo por Focus Economic

 Brent crude oil prices continued to climb in February on OPEC+ supply cuts. On 8 February, oil prices traded at USD 61.4 per barrel, which was up 7.8% from the same day last month. Although

the benchmark price for global crude oil markets was down 4.5% from the same day last year, it was 21.4% higher on a year-to-date basis. Oil prices continued to climb in recent weeks amid signs that the oil cap deal signed by OPEC and Russia is gradually tightening global oil output. According to a recent survey, OPEC’s combined oil production declined by around 890,000 barrels per day in January from December, which would have represented the largest monthly drop since January 2017. Therefore, the cartel has reached almost three quarters of its target to reduce production by 800,000 (bpd) from October’s level. Along with some OPEC members displaying a strong commitment to the production cuts, the reduction also reflected supply disruptions in Libya, sanctions restraining Iran’s

oil exports and the dire state of Venezuela’s oil industry. Russia, however, is lagging behind its OPEC allies and reduced output only marginally in January. This was countered by Russian officials,

who stated that this was due to technical limitations and that its adjustment would be more gradual.

Looking forward, analysts surveyed by FocusEconomics expect that the recovery in oil prices will continue in the coming months, supported by reduced global oil supply. Nevertheless, market

participants will be keeping a close eye on how the trade spat between China and the United States develops, which could shape the outlook for global oil demand going forward. FocusEconomics

panelists see prices averaging USD 67.1 per barrel in Q4 2019 and USD 65.0 per barrel in Q4 2020.

In light of recent developments, 3 panelists upwardly adjusted their Q4 2019 forecasts compared to last month. Meanwhile, 25 panelists kept their projections unchanged and 12 cut their forecasts.

The spread between the minimum and the maximum oil price forecasts remains relatively wide: For Q4 2019, the maximum price forecast is USD 80.0 per barrel, while the minimum is USD 51.0

per barrel.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices continued to recover in recent weeks after they hit an over one-year low of USD 44.5 per barrel in late December. However, recent news

that the U.S. was pumping a record-high 12 million barrels per day during the week ending 1 February has subsequently exerted some downward pressure on prices. WTI crude oil

prices traded at USD 52.8 per barrel on 8 February, which was up 6.4% from the same day last month. Although the price was down 13.9% from the same day last year, it was

16.8% higher on a year-to-date basis. WTI crude oil prices extended gains in recent weeks amid

OPEC+ production cuts, a more dovish U.S. monetary policy and U.S. sanctions imposed upon the Venezuelan state- owned oil company. Most notably, the implementation of oil production cuts led by OPEC+ has already delivered almost three quarters of their pledged cuts, according to recent

surveys, translating into higher prices. WTI crude oil prices have also benefited from a pause in the U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and U.S. sanctions against Petróleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA), which are choking production. In contrast, U.S. crude oil inventories climbed for the third

consecutive period in the week ending 1 February amid surging domestic oil production. U.S. crude oil inventories are therefore about 6% above the five-year average. WTI oil prices are expected to continue to rise further down the road on the heels of tighter global supply. That said, an

uncertain global economic outlook and robust U.S. shale production will limit the upward swing. For Q4 2019, analysts expect prices to average USD 60.4 per barrel, before declining slightly in Q4 2020 to USD 57.7 per barrel. In response to recent developments, 19 panelists left their forecasts unchanged for Q4 2019 from last month, 2 upgraded their projections, while 10 made a cut to their projections. Diverging forces in the oil market are fueling uncertainty in the evolution of oil prices: The panelist forecast range for Q4 2019 spans from a minimum of USD 45.5 per barrel to a maximum of USD 72.1 per barrel.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices continued to recover in recent weeks after they hit an over one-year low of USD 44.5 per barrel in late December. However, recent news that the U.S. was pumping a record-high 12 million barrels per day during the week ending 1 February has subsequently exerted some downward pressure on prices. WTI crude oil prices traded at USD 52.8 per barrel on 8 February, which was up 6.4% from the same day last month. Although the price was down 13.9% from the same day last year, it was 16.8% higher on a year-to-date basis.

WTI crude oil prices extended gains in recent weeks amid OPEC+ production cuts, a more dovish U.S. monetary policy and U.S. sanctions imposed upon the Venezuelan state- owned oil company. Most notably, the implementation of oil production cuts led by OPEC+ has already delivered almost

three quarters of their pledged cuts, according to recent surveys, translating into higher prices. WTI crude oil prices have also benefited from a pause in the U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and U.S. sanctions against Petróleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA), which are choking production.

In contrast, U.S. crude oil inventories climbed for the third consecutive period in the week ending 1 February amid surging domestic oil production. U.S. crude oil inventories are therefore about 6% above the five-year average. WTI oil prices are expected to continue to rise further down

the road on the heels of tighter global supply. That said, an uncertain global economic outlook and robust U.S. shale production will limit the upward swing. For Q4 2019, analysts expect prices to average USD 60.4 per barrel, before declining slightly in Q4 2020 to USD 57.7 per barrel.

In response to recent developments, 19 panelists left their forecasts unchanged for Q4 2019 from last month, 2 upgraded their projections, while 10 made a cut to their projections. Diverging forces in the oil market are fueling uncertainty in the evolution of oil prices: The panelist forecast range for

Q4 2019 spans from a minimum of USD 45.5 per barrel to a maximum of USD 72.1 per barrel.

FUENTE: Focus Economic https://www.focus-economics.com/ Desde Barcelona España